BKNGActive

Will Google launch a native end-to-end hotel booking product with direct hotel partnerships by December 31, 2026?

Resolves January 31, 2027(339d)

IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

NaN%

Likely No

Model Agreement95%

Predictions1 runs

Last UpdatedFebruary 18, 2026

Prediction History

Initial

10%

Feb 12

Current

NaN%

Feb 18

Q4 2025 earnings

Q4 2025 earnings and the broader industry landscape provided no new signals of Google moving toward a native end-to-end hotel booking product; the OTA referral model remains intact and antitrust scrutiny continues to create structural disincentive for vertical integration.

Why This Question Matters

Google native booking is the highest-severity disruption scenario identified by the Black Swan Beacon. The committee's entire framework rests on the assumption that the KAYAK impairment is bounded to meta-search (E2 evidence). If Google launches end-to-end booking, this containment boundary collapses: the meta-search vs. marketplace distinction becomes irrelevant, and COMPETITIVE_POSITION accelerates from DEFENSIBLE toward CONTESTED. The NARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP would shift from DIVERGING toward ALIGNED as market fears would be vindicated. This is the single event that affects the most signal assessments simultaneously.

COMPETITIVE_POSITIONREVENUE_DURABILITYNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

sonnet

Range: 10% – 10%Aggregate: NaN%

Individual Predictions(1 runs)

sonnetRun 1

10%

Q4 2025 earnings and the broader industry landscape provided no new signals of Google moving toward a native end-to-end hotel booking product; Google continues to operate hotel price comparison with OTA referral links, and no hotel chain partnership announcements suggesting a direct booking integration are evident. Assessment unchanged from prior batch.

No Google product announcements signaling native booking buildOTA referral model intact per Q4 2025 earnings commentaryAntitrust scrutiny of Google creates structural disincentive for vertical integration

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Google launches a product (in any market) that allows users to complete a hotel booking transaction entirely within Google's owned properties (including Google Travel, Google Maps, Google AI Mode, or Gemini) with at least 3 major hotel chains as direct supply partners, by December 31, 2026. Google Hotel Ads with Book on Google functionality that processes payments through Google qualifies. Resolves NO if Google continues to link out to OTAs/hotel sites for the actual booking transaction.

Resolution Source

Google product announcements, Google Travel product pages, hotel chain partnership disclosures

Source Trigger

Google native booking product launch with meaningful adoption

moat-mapperCOMPETITIVE_POSITIONHIGH

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