Will Booking Holdings report accommodation take rate compression exceeding 50 basis points YoY in any quarter of H1 2026?
Current Prediction
Prediction History
Q4 2025 showed continued take rate stability with no evidence of accelerating hotel commission renegotiations, reducing the probability of >50bps compression in H1 2026.
Why This Question Matters
Take rate is the most direct financial metric for measuring parity clause and commission pressure. The Moat Mapper and Gravy Gauge identified take rate compression as the most likely mechanism of moat narrowing -- hotels are more likely to negotiate commission reductions than to abandon OTAs entirely. The Black Swan Beacon's 'Compound Gradual Death' scenario depends on 20-40bps annual take rate compression. Sustained compression >50bps YoY in H1 2026 would be the first financial evidence validating the structural damage thesis, directly escalating both REVENUE_DURABILITY and COMPETITIVE_POSITION.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(1 runs)
Q4 2025 earnings showed continued take rate stability with accommodation revenue as a percentage of gross bookings holding firm, reducing the near-term probability of >50bps compression in H1 2026. Hotel commission negotiations have not yet materialized into measurable take rate headwinds despite 15+ months post parity-ban.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Booking Holdings' Q1 2026 or Q2 2026 earnings report shows accommodation revenue as a percentage of accommodation gross bookings declining by more than 50 basis points compared to the same quarter of 2025 (i.e., Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025 or Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025). Resolves NO if take rate change is flat or declines by 50bps or less in both quarters.
Resolution Source
BKNG quarterly earnings releases (10-Q filings), specifically the revenue/gross bookings calculation from financial statements
Source Trigger
Quarterly take rate compression >50bps YoY sustained
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