Will Booking Holdings record additional goodwill or intangible asset impairments exceeding $100M in any quarter through Q3 2026?
Current Prediction
Prediction History
Q4 2025 recorded no additional impairments and management commentary on OpenTable and other properties did not signal near-term impairment risk, slightly reducing the probability of a portfolio-wide pattern of impairments.
Why This Question Matters
The $457M KAYAK impairment was classified as bounded to meta-search by all four lenses. If further impairments occur (particularly OpenTable), it would establish a pattern of distribution moat degradation across Booking's portfolio rather than a single incident. This directly tests the ASSUMPTION_FRAGILITY signal: the shared assumption that 'KAYAK impairment is bounded to meta-search' (E2) underpins 3 of 4 lenses. Multiple impairments would break this assumption and accelerate the COMPETITIVE_POSITION trajectory toward CONTESTED.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(1 runs)
Q4 2025 earnings showed no additional impairments, and management commentary on OpenTable and other properties did not signal near-term impairment risk. The Q3 2025 KAYAK impairment appears contained, slightly reducing the probability of a pattern of impairments across the portfolio in the remaining quarters through Q3 2026.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Booking Holdings records goodwill or intangible asset impairment charges exceeding $100M in aggregate across any single quarter from Q4 2025 through Q3 2026, as disclosed in 10-Q or 10-K filings. Includes impairments of KAYAK, OpenTable, Agoda, or any other reporting unit. Resolves NO if no such impairments are recorded or if all impairments are below $100M per quarter.
Resolution Source
BKNG 10-Q and 10-K SEC filings, specifically the goodwill and intangible asset notes
Source Trigger
Further goodwill/intangible impairments (KAYAK, OpenTable)
Full multi-lens equity analysis