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BKNGActive

Will Booking Holdings record additional goodwill or intangible asset impairments exceeding $100M in any quarter through Q3 2026?

Resolves November 30, 2026(149d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

NaN%

Likely No

Model Agreement95%

Predictions1 runs

Last UpdatedFebruary 18, 2026

Prediction History

Initial

18%

Feb 12

-3pp

Current

NaN%

Feb 18

Q4 2025 earnings

Q4 2025 recorded no additional impairments and management commentary on OpenTable and other properties did not signal near-term impairment risk, slightly reducing the probability of a portfolio-wide pattern of impairments.

Why This Question Matters

The $457M KAYAK impairment was classified as bounded to meta-search by all four lenses. If further impairments occur (particularly OpenTable), it would establish a pattern of distribution moat degradation across Booking's portfolio rather than a single incident. This directly tests the ASSUMPTION_FRAGILITY signal: the shared assumption that 'KAYAK impairment is bounded to meta-search' (E2) underpins 3 of 4 lenses. Multiple impairments would break this assumption and accelerate the COMPETITIVE_POSITION trajectory toward CONTESTED.

COMPETITIVE_POSITIONASSUMPTION_FRAGILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

sonnet

Range: 15% – 15%Aggregate: NaN%

Individual Predictions(1 runs)

sonnetRun 1

15%

Q4 2025 earnings showed no additional impairments, and management commentary on OpenTable and other properties did not signal near-term impairment risk. The Q3 2025 KAYAK impairment appears contained, slightly reducing the probability of a pattern of impairments across the portfolio in the remaining quarters through Q3 2026.

No Q4 2025 impairment recordedOpenTable performance stable per management commentaryRemaining KAYAK trade name book value limited further downside exposure

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Booking Holdings records goodwill or intangible asset impairment charges exceeding $100M in aggregate across any single quarter from Q4 2025 through Q3 2026, as disclosed in 10-Q or 10-K filings. Includes impairments of KAYAK, OpenTable, Agoda, or any other reporting unit. Resolves NO if no such impairments are recorded or if all impairments are below $100M per quarter.

Resolution Source

BKNG 10-Q and 10-K SEC filings, specifically the goodwill and intangible asset notes

Source Trigger

Further goodwill/intangible impairments (KAYAK, OpenTable)

moat-mapperCOMPETITIVE_POSITIONMEDIUM

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