BKNGActive

Will European hotel direct booking share increase by more than 3 percentage points by December 31, 2026?

Resolves January 31, 2027(339d)

IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

NaN%

Likely No

Model Agreement95%

Predictions1 runs

Last UpdatedFebruary 18, 2026

Prediction History

Initial

15%

Feb 12

-3pp

Current

NaN%

Feb 18

Q4 2025 earnings

Q4 2025 showed robust European accommodation volume with no hotel industry data indicating accelerating direct share gains; the 16-month post-parity-ban window with no visible shift slightly reduces the probability of a >3pp move materializing within 2026.

Why This Question Matters

Hotel direct booking share is the most important empirical test of the BKNG thesis. Three lenses (Regulatory Reader, Moat Mapper, Gravy Gauge) identified the DMA parity clause ban as permanently removing a 20-year pricing advantage, yet 14 months of post-ban data show no visible damage. If hotel direct share increases >3pp, it validates the 'lagged impact' thesis and shifts REVENUE_DURABILITY toward FRAGILE and accelerates the COMPETITIVE_POSITION narrowing timeline. If share remains stable, it supports the 'aggregation wins' thesis and may justify upgrading CONDITIONAL toward DURABLE.

REVENUE_DURABILITYCOMPETITIVE_POSITION

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

sonnet

Range: 12% – 12%Aggregate: NaN%

Individual Predictions(1 runs)

sonnetRun 1

12%

Q4 2025 earnings provided no evidence of accelerating European hotel direct booking share shifts; Booking's European accommodation revenue remained robust, suggesting hotels continue to rely on OTA distribution despite the parity ban. The 16-month post-ban window with no visible share shift slightly reduces the probability of a >3pp move materializing within 2026.

European accommodation volume held strong in Q4 2025No hotel industry data points to accelerating direct share gainsParity ban structural lag appears longer than initially modeled

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if any reputable industry data source (Phocuswright, STR Global, Skift Research, or disclosure from 2+ major European hotel chains representing >5% of European room nights) reports a 3+ percentage point increase in direct booking share for European hotels between Q4 2024 baseline and any quarter ending before December 31, 2026. Resolves NO if no such data is published or the increase is less than 3pp.

Resolution Source

Phocuswright European Online Travel Overview, STR Global, or major hotel chain (Accor, Marriott Europe, IHG Europe) earnings disclosures

Source Trigger

European hotel direct booking share increase >3pp

regulatory-readerREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH

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