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Will core Celsius brand consumption growth remain above 10% through FY2026?

Resolves February 15, 2027(312d)

IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

56%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement97%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Core Celsius brand growth is the most consequential metric because it separates organic demand from acquired growth. Below 10% would fundamentally change the growth story.

REVENUE_DURABILITYNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 52% – 62%Aggregate: 56%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

60%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

opusRun 2

62%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

opusRun 3

58%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 1

55%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 2

52%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 3

55%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 1

57%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 2

55%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 3

56%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Circana or Nielsen consumption tracking data shows Celsius brand (excluding Alani Nu and Rockstar) maintaining above 10% YoY dollar consumption growth for FY2026. Resolves NO if core Celsius brand consumption growth falls below 10%.

Resolution Source

Circana/Nielsen consumption data as reported in CELH earnings materials

Source Trigger

Organic Celsius brand growth decelerated from triple-digit to ~15-20%; if core brand drops below 10% consumption growth, the growth story fundamentally changes

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH

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