RuncheyResearch

Archived research. Equity forecasting is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive

Back to Forecasting

CELHActive

Will founder/early investor selling remain below $400M in H1 2026?

Resolves July 31, 2026(23d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

58%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement98%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Founder selling pace determines supply pressure. Acceleration would intensify the overhang; deceleration would let the stock benefit from operational improvements.

GOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENT

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 55% – 62%Aggregate: 58%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

60%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

opusRun 2

62%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

opusRun 3

58%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 1

58%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 2

55%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 3

57%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 1

60%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 2

57%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 3

58%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if total Form 4 and Form 144 filed sales by CD Financial, John Fieldly-related entities, and DeSantis-related entities sum to less than $400M in H1 2026. Resolves NO if total exceeds $400M.

Resolution Source

SEC Form 4 filings for CD Financial, related DeSantis entities

Source Trigger

Founder/early investor entities selling $700M+; CD Financial/DeSantis selling pace creates supply overhang despite positive management signals

insider-investigatorGOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENTMEDIUM

View CELH Analysis

Full multi-lens equity analysis