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Will founder/early investor selling remain below $400M in H1 2026?

Resolves July 31, 2026(113d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

58%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement98%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Founder selling pace determines supply pressure. Acceleration would intensify the overhang; deceleration would let the stock benefit from operational improvements.

GOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENT

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 55% – 62%Aggregate: 58%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

60%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

opusRun 2

62%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

opusRun 3

58%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 1

58%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 2

55%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 3

57%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 1

60%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 2

57%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 3

58%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if total Form 4 and Form 144 filed sales by CD Financial, John Fieldly-related entities, and DeSantis-related entities sum to less than $400M in H1 2026. Resolves NO if total exceeds $400M.

Resolution Source

SEC Form 4 filings for CD Financial, related DeSantis entities

Source Trigger

Founder/early investor entities selling $700M+; CD Financial/DeSantis selling pace creates supply overhang despite positive management signals

insider-investigatorGOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENTMEDIUM

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