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CELHActive

Will CELH international revenue exceed 5% of total by Q4 2026?

Resolves February 28, 2027(235d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

22%

Likely No

Model Agreement97%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

International expansion is a key component of the 'long runway' narrative. Failure to reach 5% by Q4 2026 would suggest the international story is years away from mattering.

REVENUE_DURABILITYNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 18% – 28%Aggregate: 22%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

25%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

opusRun 2

22%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

opusRun 3

28%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 1

20%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 2

18%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 3

22%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 1

22%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 2

20%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 3

22%

See prediction context for analysis details. Model probability reflects assessment of key factors.

See prediction-context.md

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if CELH reports Q4 2026 international revenue exceeding 5% of total quarterly revenue. Resolves NO if international revenue remains at or below 5%.

Resolution Source

CELH Q4 2026 earnings release or 10-K geographic segment data

Source Trigger

International revenue currently small; if international remains <5% by Q4 2026, the 'long runway' narrative loses credibility

myth-meterNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPMEDIUM

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