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Will the Lunstrum v. Centene securities class action reach settlement or dismissal by December 31, 2026?

Resolves January 1, 2027(290d)
IG: 0.36

Current Prediction

20%
Likely No
Model Agreement85%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 15%25%Aggregate: 20%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
18%

Securities class actions typically take 2-4 years. Filed 2025. Settlement by end 2026 unusually fast.

2-4 year timelineFiled 2025
opusRun 2
22%

Clear damages evidence ($1.8B) could accelerate. But Centene may fight to avoid precedent.

Clear evidenceCentene may fight
opusRun 3
15%

Motion to dismiss most likely near-term. If denied, settlement likely 2027+.

MTD likelySettlement 2027+
sonnetRun 1
20%

Standard timeline 2027-2028. End 2026 too soon unless MTD ruling.

Standard 2027-2028MTD ruling possible
sonnetRun 2
25%

Companies sometimes settle early during turnarounds to remove distraction.

Turnaround motivationEarly settlement possible
sonnetRun 3
18%

SEC interest complicates settlement timing and adds coordination delays.

SEC complicatesCoordination delays
haikuRun 1
20%

Rarely resolves in 1 year. Low probability.

Rare 1-year resolution
haikuRun 2
22%

Possible but unlikely. Requires early settlement or dismissal.

Possible but unlikely
haikuRun 3
18%

Standard litigation timeline makes 2026 resolution improbable.

Improbable

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if the Lunstrum v. Centene securities class action is either (a) settled with court approval, (b) dismissed with prejudice, or (c) dismissed without prejudice with no refiling by December 31, 2026. Resolves NO if the case remains active and pending as of that date.

Resolution Source

Court docket (PACER), company 10-K/10-Q disclosures

Source Trigger

Securities class action developments — litigation risk and governance implications

insider-investigatorGOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENTMEDIUM
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