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Will CX FCF conversion rate remain above 45% in FY2026?
Resolves February 28, 2027(325d)
IG: 0.48
Current Prediction
57%
Likely Yes
Model Agreement97%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026
Why This Question Matters
FCF conversion improved from 35% to 46%. Some elements non-recurring. Maintaining 45%+ confirms structural improvement.
CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT
Prediction Distribution
0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 52% – 62%Aggregate: 57%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
60%See prediction context for full analysis.
See prediction-context.md
opusRun 2
58%See prediction context for full analysis.
See prediction-context.md
opusRun 3
62%See prediction context for full analysis.
See prediction-context.md
sonnetRun 1
55%See prediction context for full analysis.
See prediction-context.md
sonnetRun 2
52%See prediction context for full analysis.
See prediction-context.md
sonnetRun 3
57%See prediction context for full analysis.
See prediction-context.md
haikuRun 1
58%See prediction context for full analysis.
See prediction-context.md
haikuRun 2
55%See prediction context for full analysis.
See prediction-context.md
haikuRun 3
56%See prediction context for full analysis.
See prediction-context.md
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if FY2026 adj FCF conversion >= 45%. Resolves NO if below.
Resolution Source
CX FY2026 results
Source Trigger
FCF conversion improved 35% to 46%; target 50%; some non-recurring
stress-scannerCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTMEDIUM
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