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CXActive

Will CX FCF conversion rate remain above 45% in FY2026?

Resolves February 28, 2027(238d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

57%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement97%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

FCF conversion improved from 35% to 46%. Some elements non-recurring. Maintaining 45%+ confirms structural improvement.

CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 52% – 62%Aggregate: 57%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

60%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

opusRun 2

58%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

opusRun 3

62%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 1

55%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 2

52%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 3

57%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 1

58%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 2

55%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 3

56%

See prediction context for full analysis.

See prediction-context.md

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if FY2026 adj FCF conversion >= 45%. Resolves NO if below.

Resolution Source

CX FY2026 results

Source Trigger

FCF conversion improved 35% to 46%; target 50%; some non-recurring

stress-scannerCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTMEDIUM

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