DNNActive

Will CNSC issue the Phoenix ISR mining license by year-end 2026?

Resolves January 15, 2027(281d)

IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

32%

Likely No

Model Agreement97%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

The CNSC (Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission) license decision for Phoenix ISR is the single most consequential binary event. CNSC has no precedent for ISR uranium mining in the Athabasca Basin. Appro

REGULATORY_EXPOSURE

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 28% – 38%Aggregate: 32%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

35%

See prediction context.

See prediction-context.md

opusRun 2

38%

See prediction context.

See prediction-context.md

opusRun 3

32%

See prediction context.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 1

30%

See prediction context.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 2

28%

See prediction context.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 3

33%

See prediction context.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 1

32%

See prediction context.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 2

30%

See prediction context.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 3

30%

See prediction context.

See prediction-context.md

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if CNSC issues the mining license for the Phoenix ISR project on or before December 31, 2026. Resolves NO if the license has not been issued by year-end 2026.

Resolution Source

CNSC public decision records or DNN press release

Source Trigger

CNSC license decision is binary catalyst; approval enables construction, denial alters entire thesis

regulatory-readerREGULATORY_EXPOSUREHIGH

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