GHActive

Will Quest co-promotion contribute materially to Shield volumes by H2 2026?

Resolves January 15, 2027(281d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

40%

Likely No

Model Agreement92%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Quest co-promotion is a key infrastructure catalyst for Shield distribution at scale.

COMPETITIVE_POSITIONREVENUE_DURABILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 38% – 42%Aggregate: 40%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

42%

Channel partnerships take time to ramp. Quest has the infrastructure but integrating a novel screening test into existing workflows requires training and process changes.

Partnerships take timeInfrastructure existsProcess changes needed

opusRun 2

38%

10% of volumes is a meaningful threshold. Quest would need to generate 10K+ tests per quarter in H2 to be material. This requires significant ramp from early partnership stages.

10% is meaningful threshold10K+ tests quarterly neededSignificant ramp required

opusRun 3

40%

Quest has nationwide reach and established physician relationships. If the partnership is well-executed, 10% contribution is feasible but represents optimistic execution.

Nationwide reachPhysician relationshipsOptimistic execution needed

sonnetRun 1

40%

Lab partnerships for novel tests typically take 12-18 months to reach meaningful volumes. H2 2026 may be early for material contribution.

12-18 months typicalH2 2026 may be earlyMeaningful volumes take time

sonnetRun 2

38%

The resolution criteria require management disclosure of materiality. Even if Quest contributes, it may not be separately disclosed as material.

Disclosure requirementMay not be separately disclosedAdds resolution uncertainty

sonnetRun 3

42%

Quest has strong sales infrastructure. If the commercial agreement is well-structured with aligned incentives, ramp could be faster than typical.

Strong Quest infrastructureIncentive alignment mattersCould be faster than typical

haikuRun 1

40%

Partnership ramp takes time. 10% is meaningful threshold. ~40%.

Takes timeMeaningful threshold40%

haikuRun 2

38%

Early for material contribution. ~38%.

Early stageMaterial is high bar38%

haikuRun 3

42%

Quest infrastructure helps but novel test integration is slow. ~42%.

Infrastructure helpsIntegration slow42%

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Quest channels contribute >10% of Shield test volumes in H2 2026. Resolves NO if below 10% or not disclosed.

Resolution Source

Guardant Health earnings calls or investor presentations

Source Trigger

Quest co-promotion is a key infrastructure catalyst for Shield distribution at scale

moat-mapperCOMPETITIVE_POSITIONMEDIUM

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