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JOBYActive

Will Joby announce an additional equity or convertible debt offering in 2026?

Resolves January 31, 2027(186d)

IG: 0.52

Current Prediction

30%

Likely No

Model Agreement75%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 16, 2026

Why This Question Matters

After raising $1.8B in late 2025/early 2026 (diluting 39%+), another raise would signal the cash burn is worse than expected. This tests whether the $2.6B is truly sufficient and whether the STRETCHED assessment should be escalated to STRAINED.

FUNDING_FRAGILITYGOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENT

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 26% – 35%Aggregate: 30%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

29%

Analysis-grounded opus run 1

Committee findings

opusRun 2

32%

Analysis-grounded opus run 2

Committee findings

opusRun 3

35%

Analysis-grounded opus run 3

Committee findings

sonnetRun 1

26%

Analysis-grounded sonnet run 1

Committee findings

sonnetRun 2

29%

Analysis-grounded sonnet run 2

Committee findings

sonnetRun 3

32%

Analysis-grounded sonnet run 3

Committee findings

haikuRun 1

27%

Analysis-grounded haiku run 1

Committee findings

haikuRun 2

30%

Analysis-grounded haiku run 2

Committee findings

haikuRun 3

33%

Analysis-grounded haiku run 3

Committee findings

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Joby files prospectus supplement or announces new equity/convertible offering in 2026.

Resolution Source

SEC filings (424B5, S-3, 8-K)

Source Trigger

Additional equity offering announced

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYMEDIUM

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