Will KTOS be selected as a prime or subcontractor for Air Force CCA Increment 2 by end of 2026?
Current Prediction
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
9 companies competing. Kratos has most mature platform. Inc.2 may favor lower-cost platforms. But classified nature means true position unknown.
Inc.1 excluded Kratos. Inc.2 requirements unknown. Genuine uncertainty.
Multi-vendor strategy and USMC selection favor inclusion. Slight lean YES.
Inc.1 exclusion is negative signal. AF has GA and Anduril relationships.
Both selection and timing uncertain. Could slip to 2027.
Genuinely uncertain. Strong credentials but Inc.1 exclusion.
Too uncertain. Inc.2 requirements and timing unknown.
Inc.1 loss concerning but Inc.2 may differ. Near coin-flip.
Flying platforms and USMC selection provide credentials. Slight YES.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Kratos is announced as a selected contractor (prime or sub) for CCA Increment 2 by end of calendar 2026 via DoD press releases, SEC filings, or company announcements. Resolves NO if not selected or if the decision is delayed beyond 2026.
Resolution Source
DoD announcements, KTOS press releases, or SEC filings
Source Trigger
CCA Increment 2 award decision tests tactical drone moat
Full multi-lens equity analysis