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Will Mobileye's FY2026 revenue exceed $2.0 billion?
Current Prediction
Prediction History
Q1 revenue of $558M (+27% YoY) drove a guidance raise to $1.975B midpoint (+4% YoY). $2.0B now requires ~$25M upside to revised guide vs $106M in original guide. H2 China export sustainability and Q2 seasonal comp remain watch items. Probability raised from 0.35 to 0.42.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
Management guided flat-to-5% from $1.894B. $2.0B requires 5.6%, above top of guidance. Conservative management track record.
$2.0B is $60M above midpoint. China and FX headwinds. No Drive revenue.
Historical guidance beat pattern provides some upside. But flat-to-5% was set knowing Q1 would be strong.
Above guidance. Likely NO.
Strong Q1 helps but H2 uncertain.
Conservative guidance + headwinds = lean NO.
Above guidance range.
Pipeline strong but above guidance.
Flat to 5% guidance makes $2B stretch.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Mobileye reports FY2026 (fiscal year ending December 2026) total revenue exceeding $2.0 billion. Resolves NO if revenue is $2.0B or below.
Resolution Source
Mobileye FY2026 10-K or Q4 FY2026 earnings press release
Source Trigger
Full-year 2026 revenue growth exceeding 5% (top of guidance range)
Full multi-lens equity analysis