MBLYActive

Will Mobileye's FY2026 revenue exceed $2.0 billion?

Resolves March 31, 2027(379d)

IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

35%

Likely No

Model Agreement85%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 32% – 38%Aggregate: 35%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

35%

Management guided flat-to-5% from $1.894B. $2.0B requires 5.6%, above top of guidance. Conservative management track record.

Above guidance rangeConservative management

opusRun 2

32%

$2.0B is $60M above midpoint. China and FX headwinds. No Drive revenue.

$60M above midpointHeadwinds

opusRun 3

38%

Historical guidance beat pattern provides some upside. But flat-to-5% was set knowing Q1 would be strong.

Beat historyH2 moderation expected

sonnetRun 1

33%

Above guidance. Likely NO.

Above guidance

sonnetRun 2

36%

Strong Q1 helps but H2 uncertain.

H2 uncertainty

sonnetRun 3

34%

Conservative guidance + headwinds = lean NO.

Conservative guidance

haikuRun 1

35%

Above guidance range.

Above guidance

haikuRun 2

37%

Pipeline strong but above guidance.

Strong pipeline

haikuRun 3

35%

Flat to 5% guidance makes $2B stretch.

Guidance range

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Mobileye reports FY2026 (fiscal year ending December 2026) total revenue exceeding $2.0 billion. Resolves NO if revenue is $2.0B or below.

Resolution Source

Mobileye FY2026 10-K or Q4 FY2026 earnings press release

Source Trigger

Full-year 2026 revenue growth exceeding 5% (top of guidance range)

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH

View MBLY Analysis

Full multi-lens equity analysis