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MBLY Forecast Markets
Mobileye Global Inc.
7
Active Markets
1
Resolved
40%
Avg Probability
All Markets
8 markets
Will Mobileye's FY2026 revenue exceed $2.0 billion?
42%
Likely No
35%42%after Q1 2026 earnings beat and raise
82% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.00
Will a top-10 OEM switch from Mobileye to NVIDIA/Qualcomm by end of 2026?
11%
Likely No
18%11%after Q1 2026 earnings — VW reaffirmation and Surround ADAS expansion
91% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.00
Will Intel sell additional Mobileye shares by end of 2026?
58%
Likely Yes
55%58%after Q1 2026 earnings — no Intel action disclosed but stock weakness persists
80% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.00
Will Mentee Robotics achieve a tangible milestone by end of 2026?
48%
Likely No
42%48%after Q1 2026 earnings — Mentee version 3.2 arriving, version 4 by late 2026, AI Day in July
76% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.00
Will SuperVision begin production with Porsche/Audi by Q2 2027?
38%
Likely No
62%38%after Q1 2026 earnings — Porsche SOP now explicitly guided to H2 2027
82% agreement
Jul 31, 2027
IG: 0.00
Will China implement formal restrictions on foreign ADAS software by end of 2026?
22%
Likely No
25%22%after Q1 2026 earnings — no new restrictions, Chinese OEM export volumes growing
82% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.00
Will Mobileye's FY2026 adjusted operating margin exceed 15%?
28%
Likely No
38%28%after Q1 2026 earnings — FY adj op income guide implies 10.6% midpoint
83% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.00
Will Mobileye's Q1 2026 revenue exceed $530M (>15% YoY)?
72%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.078Apr 23, 2026
IG: 0.00
Resolution Timeline
Jan 31, 2027
Will a top-10 OEM switch from Mobileye to NVIDIA/Qualcomm by end of 2026?Prediction: 11%
Jan 31, 2027
Will China implement formal restrictions on foreign ADAS software by end of 2026?Prediction: 22%