MBLYActive

Will Mentee Robotics achieve a tangible product demonstration or partnership by end of 2026?

Resolves January 31, 2027(320d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

42%

Likely No

Model Agreement78%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 40% – 45%Aggregate: 42%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

42%

Closed recently. Demo achievable in 10 months if hardware exists. Commercial partnership harder.

Recent closeDemo achievablePartnership harder

opusRun 2

40%

Conference demos common. But tangible threshold is subjective.

Demos commonSubjective threshold

opusRun 3

45%

Reputational incentive to validate. 10 months reasonable for demo.

Reputational incentiveReasonable timeline

sonnetRun 1

42%

Demo achievable, partnership harder, revenue impossible.

Demo achievable

sonnetRun 2

40%

Pre-revenue startup needs time.

Time needed

sonnetRun 3

44%

Management incentive to show progress.

Management incentive

haikuRun 1

42%

Near coin flip.

Near coin flip

haikuRun 2

40%

Tight timeframe.

Tight timeframe

haikuRun 3

43%

Possible but uncertain.

Uncertain

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Mobileye or Mentee Robotics publicly demonstrates a humanoid robotics product, announces a commercial partnership or pilot deployment, or reports any Mentee-related revenue by December 31, 2026. Resolves NO if no tangible milestones are announced.

Resolution Source

Mobileye press releases, earnings calls, SEC filings, or confirmed media coverage

Source Trigger

Mentee Robotics achieves first commercial revenue or tangible product milestone

stress-scannerCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTHIGH

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