Will Mobileye's EyeQ6-based SuperVision system begin volume production with Porsche or Audi by Q2 2027?
Current Prediction
Prediction History
CEO Shashua on Q1 2026 call: 'The ramp-up will start in 2027 towards the second half of the year.' This is a material push-out vs the Q1 2027 implied at the Q4 2025 call. Positive news: the 2,000 km US test with production EyeQ6 hardware performed 'outstanding' — execution risk lower. Negative news: the calendar reference clearly moved to H2 2027, putting this market's Q2 2027 threshold in direct conflict with management's stated timing. Probability lowered from 0.62 to 0.38. Technical execution is no longer the main risk; timeline is.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
Q1 2027 target with Q2 cushion. Already slipped once. Late development stage.
Porsche/Audi have strong launch incentives. EyeQ6 in final qualification.
VW Group is most important customer. Strong mutual incentive. YES lean.
Already slipped but Q2 deadline has cushion.
Late-stage development with strong OEM commitment.
VW commitment plus execution incentive. YES lean.
Likely achievable with cushion.
Delays possible but cushion helps.
Strong incentive. YES lean.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Mobileye, Porsche, or Audi confirms that EyeQ6-based SuperVision has entered series production or customer deliveries have begun by June 30, 2027. Resolves NO if production has not started by that date.
Resolution Source
Mobileye, Porsche, or Audi press releases, earnings calls, or confirmed deliveries
Source Trigger
SuperVision program launch with Porsche/Audi delayed beyond Q2 2027
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