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Will Mobileye's EyeQ6-based SuperVision system begin volume production with Porsche or Audi by Q2 2027?

Resolves July 31, 2027(501d)
IG: 0.60

Current Prediction

62%
Likely Yes
Model Agreement85%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 60%65%Aggregate: 62%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
62%

Q1 2027 target with Q2 cushion. Already slipped once. Late development stage.

Q2 cushionPrior slipLate development
opusRun 2
60%

Porsche/Audi have strong launch incentives. EyeQ6 in final qualification.

OEM incentivesFinal qualification
opusRun 3
65%

VW Group is most important customer. Strong mutual incentive. YES lean.

Mutual incentiveImportant customer
sonnetRun 1
60%

Already slipped but Q2 deadline has cushion.

Prior slipCushion
sonnetRun 2
62%

Late-stage development with strong OEM commitment.

Late-stageCommitment
sonnetRun 3
65%

VW commitment plus execution incentive. YES lean.

VW commitment
haikuRun 1
62%

Likely achievable with cushion.

Cushion
haikuRun 2
60%

Delays possible but cushion helps.

Delays possible
haikuRun 3
63%

Strong incentive. YES lean.

Strong incentive

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Mobileye, Porsche, or Audi confirms that EyeQ6-based SuperVision has entered series production or customer deliveries have begun by June 30, 2027. Resolves NO if production has not started by that date.

Resolution Source

Mobileye, Porsche, or Audi press releases, earnings calls, or confirmed deliveries

Source Trigger

SuperVision program launch with Porsche/Audi delayed beyond Q2 2027

myth-meterNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPHIGH
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