MBLYActive

Will Mobileye's FY2026 full-year adjusted operating margin exceed 15%?

Resolves March 31, 2027(333d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

38%

Likely No

Model Agreement82%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Prediction History

Initial

38%

Mar 17

-10pp

Current

38%

Apr 23

Q1 2026 earnings — FY adj op income guide implies 10.6% midpoint

FY2026 adj op income guide raised to $210M midpoint on $1.975B revenue guide = 10.6% adj op margin. To reach 15%, would need ~$296M adj op income ($86M above midpoint, ~40% above guide). Q1 delivered 17% margin, but full-year is dragged by lower-margin China OEM export mix (lower ASP) plus incremental ECU memory costs on SuperVision. CFO explicitly cited mix headwinds. Probability lowered from 0.38 to 0.28.

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 35% – 40%Aggregate: 38%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

38%

FY2025 adjusted margin ~17%. Q4 dropped to 9%. 15% is below FY2025 but above Q4 trough. Limited revenue leverage with flat-to-5% growth.

Below FY2025Above Q4 troughLimited leverage

opusRun 2

35%

Mentee R&D adds $50-100M costs. Dual-chip transition pressure. FX headwinds.

Mentee costsDual-chip pressureFX

opusRun 3

40%

If costs are front-loaded, H2 could recover. Efficiency initiatives help. But reaching 15% needs significant Q4 improvement.

Front-loaded costs possibleEfficiency initiatives

sonnetRun 1

37%

Below FY2025 average with added costs. Lean NO.

Added costs

sonnetRun 2

38%

Multiple headwinds vs limited growth. Lean NO.

HeadwindsLimited growth

sonnetRun 3

40%

Efficiency could help but headwinds structural.

Efficiency vs headwinds

haikuRun 1

38%

Headwinds make >15% challenging.

Headwinds

haikuRun 2

36%

Mentee costs push margin down.

Mentee costs

haikuRun 3

40%

Possible but challenging.

Challenging

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Mobileye reports FY2026 full-year adjusted operating income as a percentage of revenue exceeding 15.0%, as reported in the FY2026 earnings release. Resolves NO if adjusted operating margin is 15.0% or below.

Resolution Source

Mobileye FY2026 earnings press release

Source Trigger

Adjusted operating margin compression from dual-chip programs and Mentee R&D

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