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Will Mobileye's FY2026 full-year adjusted operating margin exceed 15%?
Current Prediction
Prediction History
FY2026 adj op income guide raised to $210M midpoint on $1.975B revenue guide = 10.6% adj op margin. To reach 15%, would need ~$296M adj op income ($86M above midpoint, ~40% above guide). Q1 delivered 17% margin, but full-year is dragged by lower-margin China OEM export mix (lower ASP) plus incremental ECU memory costs on SuperVision. CFO explicitly cited mix headwinds. Probability lowered from 0.38 to 0.28.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
FY2025 adjusted margin ~17%. Q4 dropped to 9%. 15% is below FY2025 but above Q4 trough. Limited revenue leverage with flat-to-5% growth.
Mentee R&D adds $50-100M costs. Dual-chip transition pressure. FX headwinds.
If costs are front-loaded, H2 could recover. Efficiency initiatives help. But reaching 15% needs significant Q4 improvement.
Below FY2025 average with added costs. Lean NO.
Multiple headwinds vs limited growth. Lean NO.
Efficiency could help but headwinds structural.
Headwinds make >15% challenging.
Mentee costs push margin down.
Possible but challenging.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Mobileye reports FY2026 full-year adjusted operating income as a percentage of revenue exceeding 15.0%, as reported in the FY2026 earnings release. Resolves NO if adjusted operating margin is 15.0% or below.
Resolution Source
Mobileye FY2026 earnings press release
Source Trigger
Adjusted operating margin compression from dual-chip programs and Mentee R&D
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