MBLYActive

Will Intel sell additional Mobileye shares (beyond the July 2025 offering) by end of 2026?

Resolves January 31, 2027(320d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

55%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement82%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 52% – 58%Aggregate: 55%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

58%

Intel has demonstrated willingness to sell. Ongoing restructuring needs. Lower price reduces attractiveness but need may override.

Demonstrated willingnessOngoing needsLower price

opusRun 2

52%

CHIPS Act may reduce urgency. But conversion mechanism available. Slight YES lean.

CHIPS Act factorConversion available

opusRun 3

55%

History favors YES. Multi-year restructuring. Slight YES.

Historical precedentMulti-year restructuring

sonnetRun 1

55%

Intel needs cash. Already sold once. Slight YES.

Cash needsPrecedent

sonnetRun 2

52%

Near coin flip. CHIPS Act could help but restructuring is multi-year.

Near coin flipMulti-year

sonnetRun 3

58%

Financial position makes sale more likely than not.

Financial position

haikuRun 1

55%

Likely to sell more. Slight YES.

Likely

haikuRun 2

52%

Near coin flip, YES lean.

Near coin flip

haikuRun 3

58%

Intel needs cash. YES lean.

Cash needs

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Intel Corporation or its subsidiaries sell, convert and sell, or otherwise dispose of additional Mobileye shares through any mechanism (secondary offering, block trade, open market) by December 31, 2026, as reported in SEC filings. Resolves NO if no additional sales occur.

Resolution Source

SEC Form 4, S-3 filings, or secondary offering announcements

Source Trigger

Intel announces additional MBLY share sale (beyond July 2025 offering)

insider-investigatorGOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENTHIGH

View MBLY Analysis

Full multi-lens equity analysis