MBLYActive

Will a top-10 global OEM publicly announce switching from Mobileye to NVIDIA or Qualcomm for ADAS by end of 2026?

Resolves January 31, 2027(320d)

IG: 0.60

Current Prediction

18%

Likely No

Model Agreement90%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 15% – 20%Aggregate: 18%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

18%

OEM ADAS platform switches are rare due to multi-year development cycles and safety certification.

Multi-year cyclesHigh switching costs

opusRun 2

15%

Switching costs very high. Public announcement would be extraordinary.

High switching costsPublic announcements rare

opusRun 3

20%

Competitive pressure manifests slowly. New programs, not cancellations.

Slow dynamicsNew programs vs cancellations

sonnetRun 1

18%

Very unlikely in 2026 timeframe.

Short timeframe

sonnetRun 2

20%

NVIDIA gaining through new programs, not switching.

New programs not switches

sonnetRun 3

17%

Gradual erosion, not sudden switches.

Gradual erosion

haikuRun 1

18%

Automotive switching is slow.

Slow switching

haikuRun 2

20%

Low probability event.

Low probability

haikuRun 3

16%

Very unlikely within timeframe.

Short timeframe

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if a top-10 global OEM (by production volume) publicly announces cancellation of a Mobileye ADAS program in favor of NVIDIA Drive, Qualcomm Snapdragon Ride, or comparable platform by December 31, 2026. Resolves NO otherwise.

Resolution Source

OEM or Mobileye press releases, SEC filings, or confirmed media reports

Source Trigger

Loss of a top-3 OEM customer to NVIDIA or Qualcomm

moat-mapperCOMPETITIVE_POSITIONHIGH

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