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Will insider selling pace at MIR decelerate in H1 2026 vs. H2 2025?

Resolves July 15, 2026(97d)
IG: 0.36

Current Prediction

45%
Likely No
Model Agreement97%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 40% – 48%Aggregate: 45%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
47%

Insider selling patterns tend to be persistent. SPAC-era holders have ongoing programs.

Insider selling patterns tend to be persistent. SPAC-era holders have ongoing pr
opusRun 2
45%

MIXED governance signal. Deceleration requires decision to pause or exhaustion of planned sales.

MIXED governance signal. Deceleration requires decision to pause or exhaustion o
opusRun 3
48%

Selling patterns are sticky. Business improvement may not change program.

Selling patterns are sticky. Business improvement may not change program.
sonnetRun 1
43%

Insider selling patterns tend to be persistent. SPAC-era holders have ongoing programs.

Insider selling patterns tend to be persistent. SPAC-era holders have ongoing pr
sonnetRun 2
45%

MIXED governance signal. Deceleration requires decision to pause or exhaustion of planned sales.

MIXED governance signal. Deceleration requires decision to pause or exhaustion o
sonnetRun 3
40%

Selling patterns are sticky. Business improvement may not change program.

Selling patterns are sticky. Business improvement may not change program.
haikuRun 1
45%

Insider selling patterns tend to be persistent. SPAC-era holders have ongoing programs.

Insider selling patterns tend to be persistent. SPAC-era holders have ongoing pr
haikuRun 2
43%

MIXED governance signal. Deceleration requires decision to pause or exhaustion of planned sales.

MIXED governance signal. Deceleration requires decision to pause or exhaustion o
haikuRun 3
47%

Selling patterns are sticky. Business improvement may not change program.

Selling patterns are sticky. Business improvement may not change program.

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if aggregate insider selling volume in H1 2026 is lower than H2 2025. Resolves NO if maintained or increases.

Resolution Source

SEC Form 4 filings from EDGAR

Source Trigger

Insider selling pattern: Monitor whether Kingsley selling pace continues or abates.

insider-investigatorGOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENTMEDIUM
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