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MIRActive

Will MIR RTQA business return to positive organic growth in FY2026?

Resolves February 28, 2027(235d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

50%

Likely No

Model Agreement97%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 45% – 53%Aggregate: 50%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

52%

Management says transitory. Medical radiation fundamentals remain strong.

opusRun 2

50%

Competitive dynamics in radiation QA could indicate share loss vs cyclical softness.

Competitive dynamics in radiation QA could indicate share loss vs cyclical softn

opusRun 3

53%

Coin-flip reflecting genuine uncertainty about transitory vs structural weakness.

Coin-flip reflecting genuine uncertainty about transitory vs structural weakness

sonnetRun 1

48%

Management says transitory. Medical radiation fundamentals remain strong.

sonnetRun 2

50%

Competitive dynamics in radiation QA could indicate share loss vs cyclical softness.

Competitive dynamics in radiation QA could indicate share loss vs cyclical softn

sonnetRun 3

45%

Coin-flip reflecting genuine uncertainty about transitory vs structural weakness.

Coin-flip reflecting genuine uncertainty about transitory vs structural weakness

haikuRun 1

50%

Management says transitory. Medical radiation fundamentals remain strong.

haikuRun 2

48%

Competitive dynamics in radiation QA could indicate share loss vs cyclical softness.

Competitive dynamics in radiation QA could indicate share loss vs cyclical softn

haikuRun 3

52%

Coin-flip reflecting genuine uncertainty about transitory vs structural weakness.

Coin-flip reflecting genuine uncertainty about transitory vs structural weakness

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if RTQA or relevant medical sub-segment returns to positive organic growth in FY2026. Resolves NO if flat or negative.

Resolution Source

Mirion earnings calls and quarterly filings

Source Trigger

RTQA recovery: Management calls RTQA weakness transitory -- monitor for evidence of rebound vs. structural decline.

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYMEDIUM

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