MIRActive

Will Paragon acquisition margin dilution narrow by H2 2026?

Resolves February 28, 2027(325d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

55%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement97%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 50% – 58%Aggregate: 55%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

58%

Integration typically shows margin improvement within 6-12 months. Paragon strategic fit validated.

Integration typically shows margin improvement within 6-12 months. Paragon strat

opusRun 2

55%

Two acquisitions in 6 months is aggressive. Integration bandwidth may be stretched.

Two acquisitions in 6 months is aggressive. Integration bandwidth may be stretch

opusRun 3

57%

Typical pattern shows initial dilution narrowing over 2-3 quarters.

sonnetRun 1

53%

Integration typically shows margin improvement within 6-12 months. Paragon strategic fit validated.

Integration typically shows margin improvement within 6-12 months. Paragon strat

sonnetRun 2

55%

Two acquisitions in 6 months is aggressive. Integration bandwidth may be stretched.

Two acquisitions in 6 months is aggressive. Integration bandwidth may be stretch

sonnetRun 3

50%

Typical pattern shows initial dilution narrowing over 2-3 quarters.

haikuRun 1

55%

Integration typically shows margin improvement within 6-12 months. Paragon strategic fit validated.

Integration typically shows margin improvement within 6-12 months. Paragon strat

haikuRun 2

52%

Two acquisitions in 6 months is aggressive. Integration bandwidth may be stretched.

Two acquisitions in 6 months is aggressive. Integration bandwidth may be stretch

haikuRun 3

57%

Typical pattern shows initial dilution narrowing over 2-3 quarters.

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Mirion adjusted EBITDA margin in H2 2026 is higher than H1 2026. Resolves NO if H2 margin is flat or lower.

Resolution Source

Mirion Q3 and Q4 2026 earnings releases

Source Trigger

Paragon integration margins: Track whether margin dilution narrows by H2 2026 as synergies are captured.

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYMEDIUM

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