Will New Gold (or the combined Coeur entity) announce a K-Zone maiden mineral resource by year-end 2026?

Management targeted a maiden resource for 'early 2026' and we are now in March 2026. The question gives until December 2026. The K-Zone dimensions (600m x 900m x 180m) suggest a substantial body that requires significant drill density for NI 43-101 compliance. The exploration budget increase mid-year ($17M to $22M) signals management confidence. However, the Coeur merger may reprioritize exploration spending or delay the resource announcement as the combined entity reassesses all exploration projects. If management's 'early 2026' target was realistic, we should see an announcement within 9 months.

NI 43-101 resource estimates require: sufficient drilling density, qualified person review, detailed geological modeling, and formal disclosure procedures. The timeline from drilling campaign to published resource typically takes 6-12 months after drilling is substantially complete. If drilling was still 'ongoing' at Q3 2025, the resource estimate process may not begin until mid-2026, making a year-end 2026 publication tight. The merger transition adds bureaucratic complexity — resource announcements may need combined entity board approval.

The management timeline of 'early 2026' for maiden resource followed by feasibility study by H1 2027 implies they expected to have sufficient drill data by late 2025. If that schedule holds, the resource modeling and QP review could be completed by Q2-Q3 2026, with publication by H2 2026. Management has consistently delivered on operational timelines (EXCEEDING at E3), which supports the early end of the resource estimate timeline. However, the committee also noted K-Zone optionality is 'over-emphasized' — management may have been aspirational on the timeline.

This is genuinely uncertain. Management said 'early 2026' for maiden resource, which we are now past. If 'early' meant Q1, they may already be delayed. If 'early' meant H1, there's still time. The Myth Meter flagged K-Zone narrative as over-emphasized, suggesting management may have been optimistic on timeline. On the other hand, the increased exploration budget suggests results are encouraging enough to warrant accelerated investment. Coin-flip territory with slightly lower confidence.

The year-end 2026 deadline is generous. Even if the 'early 2026' target slips by 6 months (common in exploration), a H2 2026 announcement is still within the resolution window. Management has a strong track record of delivering — they may be slightly late but unlikely to miss by more than two quarters. The merger could actually accelerate the announcement if Coeur wants to showcase the combined entity's exploration pipeline. Slightly above 50% with moderate confidence.

Exploration resource estimates are inherently uncertain in timing. The merger creates additional bureaucratic and organizational complexity that could delay the announcement. A new management team (Coeur-led) may want to review all exploration projects before publishing resource estimates. The committee's LOW evidence level (E1) for K-Zone findings reflects genuine uncertainty. Below 50% reflecting merger-related delay risk.

Management targeted early 2026, budget increased for K-Zone. Year-end deadline gives buffer. Merger may delay but dimensions suggest substantial deposit. Slightly above 50%.

NI 43-101 process is methodical and cannot be rushed. If drilling wasn't complete at Q3 2025, the timeline to year-end 2026 is tight. Merger adds delay risk. Near coin-flip.

Management has track record of meeting milestones. K-Zone dimensions are impressive and drilling budget was increased. Year-end gives 9 months from now. Merger is a wildcard but may not delay resource work already underway. Slightly above 50%.