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Will NVT generate free cash flow above $600M in FY2026?

Resolves February 15, 2027(312d)
IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

42%
Likely No
Model Agreement97%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

FY2025 FCF was $561M at 102% conversion. Exceeding $600M in FY2026 would confirm that growth investments translate to increasing cash generation. This is the cleanest test of whether the acquisition-fueled growth is value-creating or merely revenue-inflating.

ACCOUNTING_INTEGRITYFUNDING_FRAGILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 38% – 48%Aggregate: 42%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
45%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
opusRun 2
40%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
opusRun 3
42%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
sonnetRun 1
48%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
sonnetRun 2
44%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
sonnetRun 3
38%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
haikuRun 1
41%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
haikuRun 2
43%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
haikuRun 3
39%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if NVT reports free cash flow (operating cash flow minus CapEx) above $600M for full-year FY2026. Resolves NO if FCF is $600M or below.

Resolution Source

NVT FY2026 earnings release or 10-K filing

Source Trigger

FY2025 FCF at $561M with 102% conversion; growth investments should translate to increasing cash generation

fugazi-filterACCOUNTING_INTEGRITYMEDIUM
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