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Will NVTS achieve quarterly gross margin above 42% in any quarter of FY2026?

Resolves February 28, 2027(325d)
IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

29%
Likely No
Model Agreement96%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Gross margin is the clearest indicator of mix shift quality. Management claims high-power products carry better margins than mobile. If gross margins reach 42%+ by Q4 2026 (from 38.7%), it validates the mix shift narrative. If margins stay flat or decline, it contradicts the claim that high-power is higher-margin.

UNIT_ECONOMICSNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 22% – 35%Aggregate: 29%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
30%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
opusRun 2
25%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
opusRun 3
35%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
sonnetRun 1
28%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
sonnetRun 2
33%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
sonnetRun 3
22%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
haikuRun 1
27%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
haikuRun 2
31%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
haikuRun 3
29%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if NVTS reports GAAP gross margin above 42% in any single quarter of FY2026 (Q1-Q4). Resolves NO if gross margin remains at or below 42% in all quarters.

Resolution Source

NVTS quarterly earnings releases

Source Trigger

Gross margin at 38.7% declining despite claimed positive mix shift to higher-margin high-power products

atomic-auditorUNIT_ECONOMICSHIGH
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