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OKLOActive

Will OKLO stock close above $90 per share on any trading day before December 31, 2026?

Resolves January 15, 2027(168d)
IG: 0.40

Current Prediction

30%
Likely No
Model Agreement94%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedMarch 16, 2026

Why This Question Matters

OKLO peaked above $90 in 2025 on narrative alone. Testing whether the stock can return to these levels without fundamental catalysts measures whether the narrative premium persists or fades. If it reaches $90+ without NRC approval or revenue, the gap widens further.

NARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPEXPECTATIONS_PRICED

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 25%35%Aggregate: 30%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
32%

Stock at $58-60 needs ~50% rally. Narrative-driven stocks can move dramatically on catalysts. NRC progress could drive this.

50% upside neededNarrative catalyst potential
opusRun 2
28%

Stock retreated 60% from peak. Returning to $90+ without fundamentals is unlikely but possible with regulatory catalyst.

60% retreatFundamental catalyst needed
opusRun 3
35%

9 months is long time for volatile stock. Any positive NRC event could drive rapid rally.

Long time windowVolatility
sonnetRun 1
30%

Sentiment-driven stocks can return to peaks. AI theme still strong. Dilution is headwind.

Sentiment potentialDilution headwind
sonnetRun 2
25%

$90 is high bar from $60. Market has become more skeptical.

High barIncreased skepticism
sonnetRun 3
33%

Nuclear stocks volatile. Positive NRC development combined with demand could drive moves.

Sector volatility
haikuRun 1
30%

Moderate probability. Stock volatile enough to reach $90 on positive news.

Volatility
haikuRun 2
28%

Below average without fundamental catalyst.

No fundamentals
haikuRun 3
32%

Possible with narrative tailwinds. 30% range appropriate.

Narrative possible

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if OKLO closes above $90.00 on any NYSE trading day before December 31, 2026. Resolves NO otherwise.

Resolution Source

NYSE closing price data

Source Trigger

Stock price approaches or exceeds prior $90+ peak without fundamental catalyst

myth-meterNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPMEDIUM
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