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Will PSKY report FY2026 adjusted EBIT of $3.4 billion or more (within 10% of $3.8B guidance)?

Resolves March 15, 2027(363d)
IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

62%
Likely Yes
Model Agreement78%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedMarch 16, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 57%67%Aggregate: 62%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
67%

Prediction based on PSKY analysis pipeline outputs and monitoring triggers.

Source analysis findingsHistorical patternsCross-lens evidence
opusRun 2
59%

Prediction based on PSKY analysis pipeline outputs and monitoring triggers.

Source analysis findingsHistorical patternsCross-lens evidence
opusRun 3
64%

Prediction based on PSKY analysis pipeline outputs and monitoring triggers.

Source analysis findingsHistorical patternsCross-lens evidence
sonnetRun 1
57%

Prediction based on PSKY analysis pipeline outputs and monitoring triggers.

Source analysis findingsHistorical patternsCross-lens evidence
sonnetRun 2
66%

Prediction based on PSKY analysis pipeline outputs and monitoring triggers.

Source analysis findingsHistorical patternsCross-lens evidence
sonnetRun 3
60%

Prediction based on PSKY analysis pipeline outputs and monitoring triggers.

Source analysis findingsHistorical patternsCross-lens evidence
haikuRun 1
63%

Prediction based on PSKY analysis pipeline outputs and monitoring triggers.

Source analysis findingsHistorical patternsCross-lens evidence
haikuRun 2
58%

Prediction based on PSKY analysis pipeline outputs and monitoring triggers.

Source analysis findingsHistorical patternsCross-lens evidence
haikuRun 3
65%

Prediction based on PSKY analysis pipeline outputs and monitoring triggers.

Source analysis findingsHistorical patternsCross-lens evidence

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if PSKY reports FY2026 adjusted EBIT (as defined in their earnings releases, excluding SBC) of $3.4 billion or more. Resolves NO if adjusted EBIT is below $3.4 billion.

Resolution Source

PSKY FY2026 10-K filing, Q4 2026 earnings release

Source Trigger

FY2026 adjusted EBIT vs $3.8B guidance. Miss greater than 10% ($3.4B or below) would indicate management credibility gap.

myth-meterNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPHIGH
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