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Will QXO/Beacon digital sales penetration increase by more than 1 percentage point in CY2026?

Resolves March 15, 2027(340d)
IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

43%
Likely No
Model Agreement96%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Digital sales penetration is the technology moat thesis. Growth below +100bps/year signals the technology investment is not translating to competitive differentiation. Growth above +1% validates the XPO-style operational transformation narrative that justifies the premium multiple.

COMPETITIVE_POSITIONNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 38% – 50%Aggregate: 43%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
45%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
opusRun 2
40%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
opusRun 3
50%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
sonnetRun 1
42%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
sonnetRun 2
48%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
sonnetRun 3
38%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
haikuRun 1
43%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
haikuRun 2
46%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
haikuRun 3
41%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if QXO/Beacon reports digital sales as a percentage of total sales increasing by more than 1 percentage point in CY2026 vs CY2025. Resolves NO if the increase is 1 percentage point or less.

Resolution Source

QXO earnings calls, investor presentations, or 10-K filing

Source Trigger

Digital sales penetration is the technology moat thesis; growth below +100bps/year signals technology investment not translating

moat-mapperCOMPETITIVE_POSITIONLOW
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