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Will QXO/Beacon report positive organic volume growth in Q2 2026?

Resolves August 15, 2026(128d)
IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

38%
Likely No
Model Agreement97%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Organic volume growth (ex-price/mix) has been negative. Two consecutive quarters of positive organic volume would confirm business stabilization and validate the Beacon operational improvement thesis. Continued decline would undermine the narrative that QXO is executing operational transformation.

REVENUE_DURABILITYCOMPETITIVE_POSITION

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 33% – 44%Aggregate: 38%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
40%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
opusRun 2
35%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
opusRun 3
38%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
sonnetRun 1
42%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
sonnetRun 2
37%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
sonnetRun 3
33%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
haikuRun 1
44%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
haikuRun 2
36%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis
haikuRun 3
39%

Assessment based on analysis committee findings, monitoring triggers, and available financial data. Probability reflects balance of identified risk factors against growth catalysts, weighted by evidence level and model agreement from source analysis.

Analysis committee signal assessmentMonitoring trigger evaluationHistorical pattern analysis

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if QXO reports positive organic volume growth (excluding price and acquisitions) for Q2 2026. Resolves NO if organic volume is flat or negative.

Resolution Source

QXO Q2 2026 earnings release or earnings call

Source Trigger

Organic volume growth has been negative; positive volume confirms business stabilization

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYMEDIUM
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