Will Reddit's data licensing revenue grow >25% YoY in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026?

Data licensing growth collapsed from 66% to 24% to 7% over three consecutive quarters. The committee classified NARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP as WIDE with HIGH confidence. Management has abandoned the 'AI data play' narrative, pivoting to 'core business is ads'. Re-acceleration above 25% would require new major contracts or renewals that show no evidence of materializing.

While the deceleration trend is clear, data licensing is lumpy and contract-driven. A single large renewal (Google) could spike growth. However, the base is growing which makes 25% YoY harder, and management's narrative shift suggests they don't expect re-acceleration.

The deceleration trend is strong but there are two quarters for this to resolve YES. Contract renewals are inherently lumpy. The question is whether the Google/OpenAI contracts have renewal triggers that could produce a spike quarter.

Clear deceleration from 66% to 7% over three quarters. Management pivoted narrative away from data licensing. No disclosed new contracts suggest continued stagnation.

Three consecutive quarters of decelerating growth with management shifting emphasis to advertising. The 25% threshold requires significant re-acceleration from 7% current pace.

Data licensing collapse is well-documented across three lenses. Re-acceleration above 25% would be a material surprise given current trajectory and management signals.

Growth collapsed 66%→24%→7%. Management abandoned narrative. 25% threshold requires 3.5x acceleration from current pace with no visible catalysts.

Clear three-quarter deceleration with management pivoting away. Would require major new contract or renewal spike to exceed 25%.

Data licensing growth trajectory strongly downward. Two-quarter window provides some chance of contract lumpiness, but 25% threshold is demanding given 7% baseline.