Will class certification be granted in Tamraz v. Reddit (25-cv-05144) by Q3 2026?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
Tests the litigation escalation scenario. Class certification would significantly increase legal exposure and settlement pressure in Tamraz v. Reddit. The Regulatory Reader flagged active securities litigation as elevating overall regulatory exposure. Certification would escalate; dismissal or no ruling would contain the risk to nuisance level.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
Securities class actions face high dismissal rates (~40-60% at motion to dismiss). Even if the case survives MTD, class certification by Q3 2026 would require unusually fast progression from a case filed in early 2025. The committee classified REGULATORY_EXPOSURE as MODERATE, not HIGH, suggesting litigation risk is contained.
Class certification requires surviving MTD first, then discovery, then the cert motion itself. For a case filed in 2025, completing all three phases by September 2026 would be aggressive. Base rate for securities class cert overall is meaningful but the timeline constraint is binding.
The MTD is still pending. Even optimistically, MTD ruling in mid-2025, discovery through early 2026, and class cert motion filed and decided by September 2026 is very tight. Most securities cases take 2-3 years to reach class certification.
While timeline is tight, securities class cert rates are high for cases surviving MTD (~60-70%). If MTD was decided favorably in 2025, discovery could proceed and cert motion could be filed. Low confidence given procedural uncertainty.
Timeline from filing to class certification in ~18 months is possible but on the faster end. Securities class actions have been trending faster in recent years. The key question is whether MTD has been decided.
Strong allegations around traffic disclosure omissions could survive MTD. If so, discovery and class cert could proceed on an accelerated timeline. Higher uncertainty warrants wider distribution.
Securities class cert possible but timeline tight. MTD must be cleared first. Base rate supports meaningful probability but deadline constraint reduces it.
If MTD survived, class cert is likely eventually but the question is timing. September 2026 deadline makes this a timing bet more than a merits bet.
Securities litigation against Reddit has meaningful allegations but class certification by Q3 2026 requires fast procedural progression. Non-trivial probability but below 50%.
Resolution Criteria
This question resolves YES if a court order granting class certification (in whole or in part) is filed in Case No. 25-cv-05144 in any U.S. District Court on or before September 30, 2026. The question resolves NO if: (1) class certification is explicitly denied by court order, (2) the case is dismissed with or without prejudice, (3) the case settles before class certification ruling, or (4) no class certification order is issued by the resolution date. Partial certification (e.g., certification of a subset of claims or a narrower class definition) counts as YES.
Resolution Source
PACER docket entries for Case No. 25-cv-05144, specifically any court order titled 'Order Granting/Denying Motion for Class Certification' or equivalent. If unavailable via PACER, resolution will use Reddit's 10-Q or 8-K filings disclosing the class certification ruling under Item 1.03 (Legal Proceedings).
Source Trigger
Class certification granted in Tamraz v. Reddit
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