Will Reddit's quarterly ARPU growth fall below 10% YoY before Q2 2027?

Reddit's ARPU grew 41% YoY in Q3 2025, but this was achieved through efficiency improvements while DAUq traffic declined 55%. The committee classified REVENUE_DURABILITY as CONDITIONAL with HIGH confidence. While current ARPU growth is strong, the question asks about any quarter through Q2 2027 — giving 5+ quarters for deceleration to occur.

Current 41% ARPU growth provides substantial buffer above 10% threshold. However, the committee found this growth is CONDITIONAL on efficiency gains that may not persist. Traffic decline of 55% creates structural headwind.

Over a 5+ quarter horizon, ARPU growth falling below 10% is more likely than not given the structural tension between efficiency-driven monetization and declining traffic. The committee's CONDITIONAL classification implies this efficiency cannot persist indefinitely.

ARPU efficiency gains masking traffic decline is the core vulnerability. Over 5+ quarters, base effects and traffic headwinds make sub-10% growth increasingly likely.

41% ARPU growth is well above 10% threshold, providing substantial buffer. Reddit's monetization improvements appear structural rather than one-time. But CONDITIONAL classification suggests eventual limits.

Current ARPU trajectory strong but committee flagged it as masking traffic vulnerability. 10% threshold is low enough that Reddit would need significant deceleration, but 5+ quarter window provides time for this.

Traffic decline of 55% creates persistent headwind. ARPU efficiency gains have natural ceilings. Over 5+ quarters, deceleration below 10% is probable.

CONDITIONAL revenue durability classification with traffic headwinds suggests ARPU growth will eventually slow. The 5+ quarter window makes sub-10% growth more likely than not.

Strong current ARPU growth provides buffer, but structural dependency on efficiency gains that the committee flagged as unsustainable over the long horizon tilts probability toward YES.