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RIVNActive

Will Rivian's Software & Services segment revenue grow at least 50% YoY in FY2026?

Resolves February 28, 2027(212d)
IG: 0.36

Current Prediction

70%
Likely Yes
Model Agreement90%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedMarch 16, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 64% – 72%Aggregate: 70%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
64%

CFO guided approximately 60% YoY growth. VW JV revenue expected to grow with milestone deliveries. High confidence in direction.

CFO guided ~60% YoY growthVW JV milestone revenue growthhigh directional confidence
opusRun 2
67%

~60% of S&S comes from VW JV — single-partner dependency means growth is predictable if partnership continues.

~60% of S&S from VW JVsingle-partner dependencypredictable if partnership continues
opusRun 3
70%

Non-VW S&S (repair, maintenance, marketing) grows naturally with installed base. 50% threshold is below 60% guidance — reasonable buffer.

non-VW S&S grows with installed base50% threshold below 60% guidancereasonable buffer margin
sonnetRun 1
72%

CFO guided approximately 60% YoY growth. VW JV revenue expected to grow with milestone deliveries. High confidence in direction.

CFO guided ~60% YoY growthVW JV milestone revenue growthhigh directional confidence
sonnetRun 2
66%

~60% of S&S comes from VW JV — single-partner dependency means growth is predictable if partnership continues.

~60% of S&S from VW JVsingle-partner dependencypredictable if partnership continues
sonnetRun 3
69%

Non-VW S&S (repair, maintenance, marketing) grows naturally with installed base. 50% threshold is below 60% guidance — reasonable buffer.

non-VW S&S grows with installed base50% threshold below 60% guidancereasonable buffer margin
haikuRun 1
71%

CFO guided approximately 60% YoY growth. VW JV revenue expected to grow with milestone deliveries. High confidence in direction.

CFO guided ~60% YoY growthVW JV milestone revenue growthhigh directional confidence
haikuRun 2
68%

~60% of S&S comes from VW JV — single-partner dependency means growth is predictable if partnership continues.

~60% of S&S from VW JVsingle-partner dependencypredictable if partnership continues
haikuRun 3
69%

Non-VW S&S (repair, maintenance, marketing) grows naturally with installed base. 50% threshold is below 60% guidance — reasonable buffer.

non-VW S&S grows with installed base50% threshold below 60% guidancereasonable buffer margin

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Rivian's Software & Services segment revenue for FY2026 is at least 50% higher than FY2025 Software & Services revenue, as reported in the 10-K or Q4 2026 earnings release. Resolves NO if growth is below 50%.

Resolution Source

Rivian 10-K FY2026 or Q4 2026 earnings call

Source Trigger

Software & Services revenue mix — VW concentration trend

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYMEDIUM
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