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Will SQM's average realized lithium price exceed $14/kg in H2 2026?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
Lithium price is the single most important variable for SQM's revenue, margins, and CORFO royalty payments. The meta-synthesis identifies $14/kg as the threshold validating the recovery narrative. Q1 2026 prices are 'significantly stronger' than Q4 2025's ~$10/kg, but whether this is a sustained recovery or a dead-cat bounce determines whether CONDITIONAL revenue durability upgrades or degrades.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.35 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.38 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.32 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.3 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.35 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.28 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.32 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.3 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.28 based on analysis facts.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if SQM's reported average realized lithium price for H2 2026 (average of Q3 and Q4) exceeds $14/kg. Resolves NO if average realized price is $14/kg or below.
Resolution Source
SQM Q4 2026 earnings release or 20-F filing
Source Trigger
Lithium price trajectory: ~$10/kg Q4 2025, Q1 2026 expected significantly stronger. $14/kg threshold validates recovery narrative.
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