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SYMActive

Will Symbotic achieve positive non-GAAP EPS for full-year FY2026?

Resolves December 31, 2026(266d)
IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

50%
Likely No
Model Agreement96%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

SYM operates at a GAAP loss with $183.9M SBC (8.2% of revenue). Achieving positive non-GAAP EPS would validate the path toward self-sustaining economics. Missing this milestone while deploying capital on M&A would reinforce the QUESTIONABLE capital deployment assessment.

CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTFUNDING_FRAGILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 45% – 60%Aggregate: 50%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
55%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.55 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positiveKey factor 2 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positiveKey factor 3 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positive
opusRun 2
60%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.6 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positiveKey factor 2 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positiveKey factor 3 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positive
opusRun 3
52%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.52 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positiveKey factor 2 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positiveKey factor 3 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positive
sonnetRun 1
50%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.5 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positiveKey factor 2 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positiveKey factor 3 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positive
sonnetRun 2
55%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.55 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positiveKey factor 2 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positiveKey factor 3 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positive
sonnetRun 3
48%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.48 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positiveKey factor 2 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positiveKey factor 3 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positive
haikuRun 1
48%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.48 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positiveKey factor 2 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positiveKey factor 3 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positive
haikuRun 2
50%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.5 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positiveKey factor 2 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positiveKey factor 3 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positive
haikuRun 3
45%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.45 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positiveKey factor 2 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positiveKey factor 3 for sym-fy2026-non-gaap-eps-positive

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if SYM reports positive non-GAAP diluted EPS for FY2026. Resolves NO if negative or zero.

Resolution Source

SYM FY2026 earnings release with non-GAAP reconciliation

Source Trigger

SBC at $183.9M (8.2% of revenue, 83.1% of equity) while operating at a loss.

stress-scannerCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTMEDIUM
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