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SYMActive

Will Symbotic report FY2026 total revenue above $2.8 billion?

Resolves December 31, 2026(176d)
IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

48%
Likely No
Model Agreement96%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

FY2025 revenue was $2.25B. Exceeding $2.8B would represent 24%+ growth, validating backlog conversion and system deployment pace. Missing would suggest Walmart deployment deceleration or the gap between backlog and deliverable revenue is widening.

REVENUE_DURABILITYNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 42%55%Aggregate: 48%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
50%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.5 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8bKey factor 2 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8bKey factor 3 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8b
opusRun 2
55%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.55 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8bKey factor 2 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8bKey factor 3 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8b
opusRun 3
52%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.52 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8bKey factor 2 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8bKey factor 3 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8b
sonnetRun 1
48%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.48 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8bKey factor 2 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8bKey factor 3 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8b
sonnetRun 2
50%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.5 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8bKey factor 2 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8bKey factor 3 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8b
sonnetRun 3
45%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.45 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8bKey factor 2 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8bKey factor 3 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8b
haikuRun 1
45%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.45 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8bKey factor 2 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8bKey factor 3 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8b
haikuRun 2
48%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.48 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8bKey factor 2 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8bKey factor 3 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8b
haikuRun 3
42%

See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.42 based on analysis facts.

Key factor 1 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8bKey factor 2 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8bKey factor 3 for sym-fy2026-revenue-above-2-8b

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if SYM reports FY2026 total revenue above $2.8 billion. Resolves NO if below.

Resolution Source

SYM FY2026 10-K or Q4 earnings release

Source Trigger

FY2025 revenue $2.25B. $22.3B backlog (partially contingent). Need to validate backlog conversion pace.

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYMEDIUM
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