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Will Symbotic's recurring revenue exceed 10% of quarterly revenue by Q2 FY2026?
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
Recurring revenue (Software M&S + Operation Services) was only 5.7% of FY2025 total ($128M). Crossing 10% would indicate the installed base revenue flywheel is beginning to scale with the 57+ deployed systems. Staying below 10% would confirm revenue remains overwhelmingly project-based and deployment-dependent.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.15 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.18 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.12 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.1 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.15 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.1 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.1 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.12 based on analysis facts.
See prediction-context.md. Probability 0.08 based on analysis facts.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if combined Software M&S and Operation Services revenue exceeds 10% of total quarterly revenue in Q2 FY2026. Resolves NO if below 10%.
Resolution Source
SYM Q2 FY2026 10-Q or earnings release
Source Trigger
Recurring revenue base ~$128M (5.7% of total). Need 400+ systems for standalone viability.
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