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TEMActive
Will Tempus report any single quarter of FY2026 with AI algorithm/application revenue exceeding $50M?
Resolves March 15, 2027(363d)
IG: 0.45
Current Prediction
8%
Likely No
Model Agreement92%
Predictions6 runs
Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026
Prediction Distribution
0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
Range: 5% – 12%Aggregate: 8%
Individual Predictions(6 runs)
opusRun 1
10%Analysis-based assessment
Primary analysis factors
opusRun 2
6%Analysis-based assessment
Primary analysis factors
opusRun 3
12%Analysis-based assessment
Primary analysis factors
sonnetRun 1
5%Analysis-based assessment
Primary analysis factors
sonnetRun 2
8%Analysis-based assessment
Primary analysis factors
sonnetRun 3
7%Analysis-based assessment
Primary analysis factors
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Tempus discloses or can be verified to have generated >$50M in AI application/algorithm revenue in any single quarter of FY2026. Resolves NO if no quarter exceeds $50M in AI-specific revenue, or if the company does not break out AI revenue separately.
Resolution Source
Tempus AI earnings release, 10-K, or investor presentation
Source Trigger
Foundation model revenue contribution
myth-meterNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPHIGH
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