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Will Tempus receive MolDX coverage for its CRC MRD assay by September 30, 2026?
Resolves October 15, 2026(212d)
IG: 0.72
Current Prediction
52%
Likely Yes
Model Agreement68%
Predictions6 runs
Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026
Prediction Distribution
0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
Range: 48% – 58%Aggregate: 52%
Individual Predictions(6 runs)
opusRun 1
55%Analysis-based assessment
Primary analysis factors
opusRun 2
50%Analysis-based assessment
Primary analysis factors
opusRun 3
58%Analysis-based assessment
Primary analysis factors
sonnetRun 1
48%Analysis-based assessment
Primary analysis factors
sonnetRun 2
52%Analysis-based assessment
Primary analysis factors
sonnetRun 3
50%Analysis-based assessment
Primary analysis factors
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Tempus receives MolDX/Medicare coverage determination for any CRC MRD assay by September 30, 2026, as disclosed in an earnings call, press release, or SEC filing. Resolves NO if no coverage determination is disclosed by that date.
Resolution Source
CMS/MolDX coverage determination, Tempus press release, or earnings call
Source Trigger
MRD reimbursement decision from MolDX
gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH
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