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TEMActive
Will Tempus report average genomics ASP above $1,800 for any quarter in H1 2026?
Resolves September 15, 2026(46d)
IG: 0.65
Current Prediction
38%
Likely No
Model Agreement75%
Predictions6 runs
Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026
Prediction Distribution
0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
Range: 34% – 42%Aggregate: 38%
Individual Predictions(6 runs)
opusRun 1
42%Analysis-based assessment
Primary analysis factors
opusRun 2
35%Analysis-based assessment
Primary analysis factors
opusRun 3
40%Analysis-based assessment
Primary analysis factors
sonnetRun 1
34%Analysis-based assessment
Primary analysis factors
sonnetRun 2
38%Analysis-based assessment
Primary analysis factors
sonnetRun 3
36%Analysis-based assessment
Primary analysis factors
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Tempus reports or discloses average genomics ASP above $1,800 for Q1 or Q2 2026. Resolves NO if ASP remains at $1,800 or below for both quarters.
Resolution Source
Tempus AI earnings call or investor presentation
Source Trigger
ASP migration progress toward >$2,200 target
regulatory-readerREGULATORY_EXPOSUREHIGH
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