UAMYActive

Will UAMY's Q1 2026 revenue exceed $25M?

Resolves June 15, 2026(90d)

IG: 0.68

Current Prediction

38%

Likely No

Model Agreement71%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Q1 2026 revenue provides the first data point on whether the $125M annual pace is achievable. Below $25M would indicate the guidance is aspirational. Above $30M would be the strongest evidence yet of a genuine step-function change.

REVENUE_DURABILITYCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 32% – 42%Aggregate: 38%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

35%

$25M Q1 requires nearly 3x the Q3 2025 level. No historical precedent.

3x step-upNo precedentMontana timing

opusRun 2

40%

Montana expansion plus DLA could deliver but aggressive.

Montana prerequisiteDLA neededAggressive

opusRun 3

38%

$25M is 80% of $125M quarterly pace. Transformational quarter needed.

80% of paceTransformationalBelow 50/50

sonnetRun 1

32%

187% QoQ increase from Q3 2025. Extremely aggressive.

187% QoQExtremely aggressiveSequential decline

sonnetRun 2

42%

DLA lumpy deliveries could spike. Timing speculative.

DLA lumpyPossibleSpeculative

sonnetRun 3

38%

Three variables must align simultaneously. Below 50/50.

Three variablesMust alignBelow 50/50

haikuRun 1

35%

3x run rate. Aggressive. Lean NO.

3x run rateAggressiveLean NO

haikuRun 2

40%

DLA spike possible but uncertain.

DLA spikePossibleUncertain

haikuRun 3

42%

Multiple variables must align. Slight lean NO.

Multiple variablesMust alignLean NO

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if UAMY Q1 2026 revenue as reported in 10-Q exceeds $25,000,000. Resolves NO otherwise.

Resolution Source

UAMY Q1 2026 10-Q filing

Source Trigger

FY2026 Q1 revenue below $25M

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH

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