Archived research. Equity forecasting is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive
Current Prediction
Why This Question Matters
Q1 2026 revenue provides the first data point on whether the $125M annual pace is achievable. Below $25M would indicate the guidance is aspirational. Above $30M would be the strongest evidence yet of a genuine step-function change.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
$25M Q1 requires nearly 3x the Q3 2025 level. No historical precedent.
Montana expansion plus DLA could deliver but aggressive.
$25M is 80% of $125M quarterly pace. Transformational quarter needed.
187% QoQ increase from Q3 2025. Extremely aggressive.
DLA lumpy deliveries could spike. Timing speculative.
Three variables must align simultaneously. Below 50/50.
3x run rate. Aggressive. Lean NO.
DLA spike possible but uncertain.
Multiple variables must align. Slight lean NO.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if UAMY Q1 2026 revenue as reported in 10-Q exceeds $25,000,000. Resolves NO otherwise.
Resolution Source
UAMY Q1 2026 10-Q filing
Source Trigger
FY2026 Q1 revenue below $25M
Full multi-lens equity analysis