Will AAL announce a credit downgrade, covenant waiver, or strategic alternatives review by December 31, 2026?

Resolves January 31, 2027(315d)

IG: 0.58

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if any of the following occur by December 31, 2026: (1) S&P, Moody's, or Fitch downgrades AAL's corporate credit rating by one or more notches, (2) AAL requests or receives a covenant waiver from creditors, (3) AAL announces a formal strategic alternatives review. Resolves NO if none of these events occur.

Resolution Source

Rating agency press releases, AAL 8-K filings, AAL press releases

Source Trigger

AAL identified as sector credit canary — $36.5B debt + lowest margins + $107+ Brent creates credit event risk

consolidation-compassACQUISITION_VULNERABILITYHIGH

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