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SECTORActive

Will any US airline announce a merger, acquisition, or formal strategic alternatives review by December 31, 2026?

Resolves January 31, 2027(186d)

IG: 0.55

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if any of the following occur by December 31, 2026, involving AAL, DAL, UAL, LUV, or ALK: (1) A merger or acquisition agreement is announced, (2) A carrier announces a formal strategic alternatives review, (3) Material asset sales (routes, slots, loyalty program stakes) are announced with value >$500M. Resolves NO if none of these events occur.

Resolution Source

8-K filings, press releases

Source Trigger

Sector CONSOLIDATING — oil shock may force distress-driven restructuring or asset sales within 12-18 months

consolidation-compassCONSOLIDATION_TRAJECTORYMEDIUM

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