Will DAL and UAL both report Q1 2026 operating margins above 3% while at least one of AAL/LUV/ALK reports a loss?

Resolves May 15, 2026(54d)

IG: 0.52

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if DAL and UAL both report Q1 2026 GAAP operating margins above 3.0%, AND at least one of AAL, LUV, or ALK reports a GAAP operating loss for Q1 2026. Resolves NO otherwise.

Resolution Source

Q1 2026 earnings releases from DAL, UAL, AAL, LUV, ALK

Source Trigger

Premium duopoly thesis predicts DAL/UAL margins will outperform AAL/LUV/ALK by 3-5x during oil shock

competitive-chessboardCOMPETITIVE_DYNAMICSHIGH

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