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Will GSK select a 5th program under the Wave Life Sciences collaboration by year-end 2026?

Resolves December 31, 2026(266d)
IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

60%
Likely Yes
Model Agreement94%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

GSK program advancement is a key validation signal identified by 3 lenses. A 5th program selection would reinforce platform breadth and financial anchor. Failure to advance would suggest GSK sees diminishing returns from the collaboration.

COMPETITIVE_POSITIONREVENUE_DURABILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 47% – 67%Aggregate: 60%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
65%

Historical pace supports selection but pharma collaboration expansion often slows after initial phase. Historical pace of ~1.3 programs/year provides partial support, but gsk may pause after 4th selection to evaluate creates counterweight. Probability: 0.65.

Historical pace supports selection but pharma collaboration expansion often slows after initial phaseHistorical pace of ~1.3 programs/yearGSK may pause after 4th selection to evaluate
opusRun 2
63%

Historical pace supports selection but pharma collaboration expansion often slows after initial phase. Historical pace of ~1.3 programs/year provides partial support, but gsk may pause after 4th selection to evaluate creates counterweight. Probability: 0.63.

Historical pace supports selection but pharma collaboration expansion often slows after initial phaseHistorical pace of ~1.3 programs/yearGSK may pause after 4th selection to evaluate
opusRun 3
59%

Historical pace supports selection but pharma collaboration expansion often slows after initial phase. Historical pace of ~1.3 programs/year provides partial support, but gsk may pause after 4th selection to evaluate creates counterweight. Probability: 0.59.

Historical pace supports selection but pharma collaboration expansion often slows after initial phaseHistorical pace of ~1.3 programs/yearGSK may pause after 4th selection to evaluate
sonnetRun 1
47%

Base rate evidence: gsk may pause after 4th selection to evaluate. Partial offset from historical pace of ~1.3 programs/year. Historical pace supports selection but pharma collaboration expansion often slows after initial phase. Probability: 0.47.

GSK may pause after 4th selection to evaluateHistorical pace supports selection but pharma collaboration expansion often slows after initial phaseHistorical pace of ~1.3 programs/year
sonnetRun 2
60%

Base rate evidence: gsk may pause after 4th selection to evaluate. Partial offset from historical pace of ~1.3 programs/year. Historical pace supports selection but pharma collaboration expansion often slows after initial phase. Probability: 0.6.

GSK may pause after 4th selection to evaluateHistorical pace supports selection but pharma collaboration expansion often slows after initial phaseHistorical pace of ~1.3 programs/year
sonnetRun 3
57%

Base rate evidence: gsk may pause after 4th selection to evaluate. Partial offset from historical pace of ~1.3 programs/year. Historical pace supports selection but pharma collaboration expansion often slows after initial phase. Probability: 0.57.

GSK may pause after 4th selection to evaluateHistorical pace supports selection but pharma collaboration expansion often slows after initial phaseHistorical pace of ~1.3 programs/year
haikuRun 1
62%

Historical pace supports selection but pharma collaboration expansion often slows after initial phase. Balance of evidence suggests 0.62 probability. Primary support: historical pace of ~1.3 programs/year. Main counterargument: gsk may pause after 4th selection to evaluate.

Historical pace supports selection but pharma collaboration expansion often slows after initial phaseHistorical pace of ~1.3 programs/yearGSK may pause after 4th selection to evaluate
haikuRun 2
53%

Historical pace supports selection but pharma collaboration expansion often slows after initial phase. Balance of evidence suggests 0.53 probability. Primary support: historical pace of ~1.3 programs/year. Main counterargument: gsk may pause after 4th selection to evaluate.

Historical pace supports selection but pharma collaboration expansion often slows after initial phaseHistorical pace of ~1.3 programs/yearGSK may pause after 4th selection to evaluate
haikuRun 3
67%

Historical pace supports selection but pharma collaboration expansion often slows after initial phase. Balance of evidence suggests 0.67 probability. Primary support: historical pace of ~1.3 programs/year. Main counterargument: gsk may pause after 4th selection to evaluate.

Historical pace supports selection but pharma collaboration expansion often slows after initial phaseHistorical pace of ~1.3 programs/yearGSK may pause after 4th selection to evaluate

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Wave or GSK announce the selection of a 5th program under their collaboration by December 31, 2026. Resolves NO if no 5th program is announced.

Resolution Source

Wave Life Sciences or GSK press releases, SEC filings, or earnings calls

Source Trigger

GSK has selected 4 programs under collaboration with 5th-8th pending; GSK is 10%+ owner and accumulating shares (+1.47M shares in period)

moat-mapperCOMPETITIVE_POSITIONHIGH
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