2026 U.S. Midterms

California Governor

The Democratic candidate wins the California governorship

Rating
Safe D(deterministic, Jul 3, 2026)
Our forecast
not yet published
Market
91% as of Jul 6, 2026
Resolves
Nov 3, 2026

Probability over time

0%25%50%75%100%Feb 25May 25Aug 25Nov 25Feb 26May 2691%

Notes

Open seat; the incumbent is term-limited. Top-two primary held June 2, 2026.

Resolution

The Democratic candidate is certified winner of the 2026 California gubernatorial general election.

Benchmark markets

Party-level contract for the open California governorship.