2026 U.S. Midterms
Control of the U.S. House and Senate is decided November 3, 2026 — the first national electoral test of the second Trump term. This situation tracks the two chamber-control questions, the Senate seats most likely to decide the majority, and the open governorships in California and Florida, each benchmarked against a curated set of prediction-market contracts. Mid-decade redistricting and the national environment are the structural variables; the seat-level map determines how a given environment converts into chamber outcomes.
Updated Jul 6, 2026 · 9 tracked races · 11 benchmark markets
Chamber control
Probability of Democratic control, our forecast against market benchmarks.
Races
7 seat-level races and 2 chamber-control questions.
| Race | Rating ↑ | Market | 90d | Our forecast | Δ | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California Governor Open seat | Safe D | 91% | — | — | Nov 3, 2026 | |
| U.S. House control Democrats win control of the U.S. House in the November 2026 elections | Likely D | 82% | — | — | Nov 3, 2026 | |
| Georgia Senate Jon Ossoff (D) | Likely D | 86% | — | — | Nov 3, 2026 | |
| North Carolina Senate Open seat | Likely D | 87% | — | — | Nov 3, 2026 | |
| Michigan Senate Open seat | Lean D | 70% | — | — | Nov 3, 2026 | |
| Maine Senate Susan Collins (R) | Tossup | 64% | 55% | −8 pts | Nov 3, 2026 | |
| Texas Senate John Cornyn (R) | Tossup | 41% | — | — | Nov 3, 2026 | |
| U.S. Senate control Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the November 2026 elections | Lean R | 43% | — | — | Nov 3, 2026 | |
| Florida Governor Open seat | Likely R | 24% | — | — | Nov 3, 2026 |
Market column is the primary benchmark contract for each race's subject (probability the Democratic side wins). Δ is our forecast minus the market, in percentage points.
Fulcrums
The hinge variables that condition many races at once.
Redistricting map finalization
moderate uncertaintyMid-decade redraws in Texas, Missouri, Ohio, California, and Florida are priced near-certain (0.92–0.98 on Kalshi as of July 3); remaining litigation determines how many marginal House seats actually move. Map changes shift seat-count outcomes independent of the national environment.
National environment
high uncertaintyThe generic-ballot margin conditions every seat-level race simultaneously. The market-implied distribution currently centers on a Democratic popular-vote win in the mid-to-high single digits.
Primary outcomes and candidate quality
moderate uncertaintyNominee selection changes seat-level win probabilities independent of the environment. Texas is the live example: candidate-level pricing moved the seat into contention after the Republican primary. Michigan and Florida primaries are the remaining scheduled nominee decisions among tracked races.
Key dates
Log
The record: editorial updates and forecast revisions, newest first.
Nothing on the record yet.