Michigan Senate
The Democratic candidate wins the open Michigan Senate seat
What the sources say
Probability that the race subject resolves yes, from each source. The highest and the lowest are 6 points apart.
What each source does to the polls
Each probability is turned back into the margin it implies and set against the polling average. A red bar means the source treats the Democrat as weaker than the polls show, a blue bar stronger.
Market price over time
Daily closing price on each venue for the race subject.
Notes
Open seat following Gary Peters (D) declining to seek re-election. Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R). The least secure Democratic-held seat on the map; a loss here raises the number of flips needed for a majority from four to five. Trump +1.4 in 2024.
Resolution
The Democratic nominee is certified winner of the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate general election.
Benchmark markets
Party-level contract (ticker SENATEMI-26-D; the label shows the current nominee). Primary benchmark for the race subject: resolves on a Democrat being sworn in for the term beginning in 2027.