RuncheyResearch
2026 U.S. Midterms

Texas Senate

The Democratic candidate wins the Texas Senate seat

Rating
Tossup(deterministic, Jul 3, 2026)
Our forecast
not yet published
Market
41% as of Jul 6, 2026
Resolves
Nov 3, 2026

Probability over time

0%25%50%75%100%Jan 25May 25Sep 25Jan 26May 2641%

Notes

Market lists Ken Paxton (R) and James Talarico (D) as the nominees, indicating the incumbent lost the Republican primary. Competitive pricing in a state with no Democratic statewide win since 1994.

Resolution

The Democratic nominee is certified winner of the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate general election.

Benchmark markets

Texas Senate winner? — James TalaricoKalshi · 41%

Candidate-level contract (James Talarico). Treated as the probability the Democratic candidate wins the seat; assumes negligible third-party probability.